It is not too difficult to guess that the next hottest topic in Malaysia will not be the share market or even the economy. I am inclined to believe that yesterday's raid of DAP's HQ by the police will be the main coffee shop talk this week. There will be a lot of condemnation of the police, emotions running wild and more complaining, grousing and the lots. I had my share of that in my earlier posting on this subject and am going to tackle this issue from a different angle.

I would like to think that I am a reasonably smart person. Maybe not many will agree but indulge me. Lets be smart and try to understand what Najib and UMNO is up to with this very shocking raid (and without a warrant).

Now, I don't think that Najib and his goons are stupid people. Far from that. Plus, they have the resources to employ the brains of very capable people. So, why are they continuosly digging deeper and deeper graves for themselves, or are they? If I can know that this action will only further erode support for BN from the Chinese, so must they. Most Chinese are not politically associated with either MCA or DAP. Fence sitters. Present issues dictate their support. So, why is Najib risking the support of the Chinese? They have already lost the Indian votes. With the lost votes combined, BN cannot win in the next general elections. So, there must be a larger agenda.

Hmmm... So, I think that it is fair that I say come the next GE, either:

1. The Chinese and Indians have no choice but to vote BN or not vote at all; or
2. They will not get to vote.

Other than 1 or 2, BN will lose. Can I safely conclude that?

Now, how can the Cinas and Indias vote BN when Najib's camp is making things intolerable for them? Money won't solve the problem for BN as we already know. UMNO, MCA and MIC will not chnage and are in fact turning for the worse. Intriguing? But what if there is no longer a Pakatan Rakyat? Then we'll be back to pre March 2008 won't we? So, if I were in BN's shoes, my best chance to fight my opponent is to make my opponent fall before the fight.

How to bring PR down? What are the key success factors of PR? I will say Anwar and the 'pakatan' among PAS, PKR and DAP. Attack either one and if you succeed, the pot of gold is at the end of the rainbow.

Anwar is one tough cookie. Very smart one too. Probably even smarter than Najib and definitely more politically experienced and capable than Najib. Even the great Tun M finds Anwar a very formidable opponent. They have been trying very hard to bring him down to his knees recently but to no avail. Furthermore, Anwar has with him international support. He has built enough good rapport to buy himself this small insurance of international scrutiny of his welfare. Try as BN may, Anwar will be the tougher target of the 2.

On the other hand, the informal bond of PAS, PKR and DAP is rather fragile. Held together only by understanding among their leaders. The media may say all they want but I genuinely believe that the leaders of all 3 parties are comfortable co-existing with each another. But the demise or fall from grace of any of the 3 parties will spell the end of PR.

PKR is Anwar - and we have tackled that earlier. Attacking PAS with Islamic issues will see UMNO hurt themselves too. The current money politics talk in PAS? Please, PAS is not UMNO. So, PAS is also a no go. That leaves DAP. How is BN going to bring DAP down? I think it has all started already.

Najib and his goons are, in my eyes, extremists. So expect their tactics to be such too. They attacked Karpal Singh. His son, Gobind Deo Singh. They attacked DAP's many candlelight vigil. All in ridiculous manner. But DAP is not reacting. Not fighting back. But it will be in the interest of UMNO to provoke a street-type respond from DAP. It doesn't even have to involve violence. DAP supporters are definitely not capable of street violence anyway. Simple peaceful marches which is also very much favoured in the developed nations is good enough for UMNO to take action in the name of peace in the country. After all our beloved neighbour, Thailand, has set an example. And that will end DAP and hence, PR.

Another Ops Lalang? Yes, Ops Lalang Besar-Besaran. Quashing the opposition big time has always proved to be effective. Look at the 1980s where Tun M got to rule with ease. Look at 1969. The oppositions got quashed so badly that it takes the oppositions 40 years to make their presence felt again. UMNO is badly in need of a fix. A super huge fix now. Their very own survival is at stake. Try cornering a tiger to a corner and it will do all it can to survive. But we need not talk about ethnic cleasing or racial riots. I hope MCA and MIC actually have influence in BN to prevent a repeat of what Najib's father did to our country.

So, everyone please help keep emotions in check. Human are emotional beings. It is what makes us different from animals. But it is also our weakness. And oh how human likes to play with the emotions of another human. DAP, please don't react. Yes, the courts are not an avenue for justice. But justice will be served come the next GE. Just continuously pump the momentum. In the meantime, spread calm to everyone around us. Emotions are being stroked and fanned. And this will not end until the next GE. Breathe in, breathe out... Breathe in, breathe out... And please, no kungfu fighting, yes?