- I'm glad that PAS won with a severely reduced majority
- In fact i want PAS to lose. This is to show that all this unity talk nonsense
- the way they govern Kedah and
- total NO RESPECT with partner in PR cause alot of disatisfaction
- Like i said many time.. PAS 'wolf in sheep skin' will do anything in the name of religion.
- this causes them to have 'narrow point-of-view'
- Anyway, i won't give PAS any hope.
- THey break the very first rule in engaging with people which is:-

SEEK FIRST TO UNDERSTAND BEFORE TO BE UNDERSTOOD

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Civil war within PAS appears inevitable
Ong Kian Ming | Jul 15, 09 8:15am

PAS’ narrow 65-vote victory in Manek Urai was a surprise since most analysts, including myself, were expecting a more comfortable PAS victory, albeit one with the reduced majority compared to the 2008 results.

MCPX

The ‘saluran’ or polling stream results show that BN made headway against PAS in all areas including splitting the vote almost 50/50 among the younger voters.

While Najib can take some credit for BN’s improved performance with his policy activism on the economic and political front, including getting rid of the teaching of science and mathematics in English and the announcement of a list of ‘goodies’ or ‘giveaways’ in his 100th day in office, PAS must take the lion’s share of the blame for the steep loss in support that almost cost it the seat.

The proposed unity talks between PAS and Umno made the Islamic party less distinctive, confused the voters and gave Umno an increased sense of legitimacy which no doubt contributed to the BN’s increase in vote share in Manek Urai.

Near loss will increase schism

In the aftermath of this tissue-thin victory, the finger pointing within PAS has already started. Some would point fingers at the last-minute ‘goodies’ offered by the BN, including the promise to build a RM7 million bridge in this constituency, as well as the unusually high voter turnout of 87%, as factors contributing to the BN’s victory.

This misses the point since it is common practice for the BN to offer such ‘incentives’ in Kelantan and the turnout in Kelantan is normally higher than in other states in Peninsular Malaysia, all the more when it involves a closely contested by-election.

The pro-unity faction within PAS, led by Abdul Hadi Awang, Nasharuddin Mat Isa and Mustafa Ali, would no doubt blame the ineffectiveness of two of the Erdogan faction’s leaders, Tok Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat and Husam Musa, to protect the electoral turf on their own backyard in Kelantan. Nik Aziz and Husam will counter by accusing the pro-unity faction of giving Umno the opportunity to exploit the schism within PAS using the façade of unity talks.

Some Pakatan Rakyat supporters would no doubt be hoping that this near lost would lead to a closing of the ranks among the PAS leaders. I am less optimistic. It seems to me that the schism between the Erdogans and the pro-unity faction, already very obvious before and during the Manek Urai campaign, will only grow as the finger pointing between the two sides escalates.

If the leaders of the pro-unity faction could not see the electoral harm of having or even proposing talks with Umno before Manek Urai, it is hard to see how this would have changed their minds. The pro-unity faction will use this by-election result to further their claim that working with Umno is inevitable instead of realising the need to distance itself from their political enemies.

Terengganu PAS did worse electorally

The irony of attacking Nik Aziz and Husam on the grounds of losing support in their own back yard should be apparent to PAS watchers since the two leaders most associated with the pro-unity faction – Hadi Awang and Mustafa – were instrumental in engineering a precipitous decline in PAS’ electoral performance in Terengganu.

PAS in Terengganu under the duo experienced a 14% decline in its share of popular vote from 1999 to 2004 which resulted in PAS losing 24 out of the 28 state seats it won in 1999 and subsequently lost control of the state legislature. PAS in Kelantan under Nik Aziz, experienced a smaller decline of 10% in its share of popular vote and managed to retain control of the state assembly by three seats.

In the 2008 elections, PAS in Kelantan increased its vote share by 5% and won 39 out of 45 state seats while PAS in Terengganu only managed to increase its votes share by 1% and only won eight out of 32 state seats.

If electoral performance is to be used as the yardstick to gauge the political effectiveness of a leader, Hadi should have been relieved of his position as PAS president a long time ago.

Not only was the Teregganu faction in PAS’ leadership responsible for PAS losing ground in their home state, there were also responsible in hastily passing the hudud legislation which they knew had no chance of being implemented. This was one of the key decisions which eventually led to DAP leaving the then opposition coalition, Barisan Alternatif.

The political moves made by Hadi Awang have clearly been found to be wanting. His continued insistence of unity talks with Umno also does not make political sense as Manek Urai has shown. Not only will it lose PASPAS had contested in a more ethnically ‘mixed’ seat, it would have found that it has lost ground among the non-Malay voters as well who voted for PAS in large numbers in 2008 precisely on the grounds that it was not Umno.

And yet, three of the top PAS leaders – its president, its deputy president and its secretary-general – are said to be in the pro-unity faction.

PAS may split into two

With these leaders occupying the top spots in PAS hierarchy, it seems likely that the pro-unity faction within PASPAS will leave Pakatan and join the BN with perhaps the Erdogan faction leaving PAS to form a new political party.

After all, why go through the motions of unity talks and suffer the electoral consequences, if you are not willing to go all the way of actually forming some sort of unity government? much-needed Malay votes, it is arguable that if may prevail over the Erdogans. If this occurs, it seems almost inevitable that

If this occurs, PAS will slowly but surely degenerate into a shadow of its former self as it becomes less and less distinguishable from Umno.

It is hard for me to see how the conflict within PAS can have a positive ending. Internal conflict that threatens to be a public civil war rarely results in positive endings for all the parties involved.

The silver lining in this dark cloud for Pakatan and PAS is that there is a while yet before the next general election is due. A majority of the PAS grassroots seem to be against any unity talks with Umno.

If the rank-and-file within PAS can show their support for Nik Aziz and the PAS faction that is firmly against any sort of cooperation with Umno, perhaps PAS and by extension, Pakatan can be saved.