Another defection today. Regardless of how expected this defection is, still no action was taken although Pakatan knows that this is imminent.

PKR is truly out-smarted by UMNO. Or is what we are seeing now the plan after all?

Let us talk conspiracy theory. Yup. Everyone loves a good conspiracy theory.

And my theory is that there is a big trojan horse in Pakatan. And that trojan horse is none other than Anwar Ibrahim himself. (Ooooo... I can sense the heat of boiling blood out there already).

And you know what, if I were to write this 6 months ago, there will be not much of me left. But today, I actually think that there will be quite a bit of you out there who buy this.

But before we move any further, let’s address 2 common myths popular among Anwaristas.

First is that Najib and his aides are stupid and bumble their way through. The truth is they are not. Najib is a decently smart person. And his aides are definitely no idiots. These guys are way smarter than the average Joes we have out there. Chances are any of Najib boys are smarter than you. I don’t think too many of you score that high on MENSA or graduate from Harvard, Oxford, Cambridge, MIT or Yale. Well most of them are. Every step taken would have been calculated with the next 5 in mind.

Myth number 2 is that Anwar is god’s gift to mankind. The truth is again a resounding no. Anwar is a politician. And last I checked, politicians are not very good people. Anwar is on a personal vendetta. And he is on a personal mission to be the Prime Minister of Malaysia. You are nothing but pawns that get him there.

Back to our conspiracy theory.

Look. Anwar in on trial for Sodomy II. If I were Anwar, I'd swear never to get back to prison again - at whatever cost. And I think that is his stand. Who do you think he is? Jesus? Remember how he ran for his life to the Turkish Embassy when news of Sodomy II first crept up? This guy fears the jail cell; and rightly so too.

Put yourself in Anwar's shoes. Do you go ahead with the trial knowing that anything can be done to convict you, wait for Pakatan to form government and then release you (a risky route) or do you strike a deal with UMNO to keep your ass out of prison (the guaranteed safe route)? Life is tough in there. The jail cell is no kids’ playground. If convicted, chances are Anwar will have to spend the last days of his life in there. With a really bad back. I would rather commit suicide eh. I sincerely doubt if Anwar can take even 3 months is jail.

I believe that everyone has a strong element of self-centredness within them (not too sure about Nelson Mandela and Mother Theresa; but am sure there are more than meets the eye with them). As such, I say that Anwar chose the latter of the above 2 options. How else can you explain the inaction by PKR on the frogs? That Anwar is sincere in cleaning up PKR for the next GE so much so that it is best to know who the bad blood are? Or that he is really hapless with all that is happenning? Or that he is too caught up with his court case? It takes a really naive person to believe that. It is easy to see that all is too smooth sailing for UMNO now. Way too smooth. It just looks too plain easy. No fight, no nothing.

And how does Najib fit into the picture above. Well we know that Najib is close to the end of his premiership if nothing is done. He has all to lose if he doesn't gamble big. Maybe to Muhyiddin or maybe to Anwar. So, why not go “all-in” and “convince” Anwar to play ball.

If Anwar plays ball and helps Najib, then Najib will let him go. If Anwar does not play ball, then lets take it to the wire. What more has Najib got to lose? Meanwhile, Anwar will be suffering like no tomorrow in jail. And will probably decide to pull his spine out with his fingers after 3 months.

So, I do not think that Anwar is going to jail.

Here’s the deal. Anwar allows for Najib to strengthen his position within UMNO. The crossovers will appease UMNO who is growing impatient with Najib. With UMNO now back as the driving force, the Muhyiddin problem is sorted out.

The 2/3 parliament majority is not important. If BN gets it, well the next GE will be a non-event with the gerrymandering as RPK wrote.

If BN does not get the 2/3 majority now, well all is still fine. When Najib frees Anwar, the war has already been won.

One, the international media will hail Najib as a true reformer and saviour of the new Malaysia. A complete departure from the style of his politicial guru, Tun M. And Najib gets to move away from his Tun M prodigy tag.

Two, the judiciary system gets an overnight thorough cleaning and starts afresh with renewed integrity. We know that is not true, but the perception of the court will be changed. With a perceived fair court, even RPK will lose credit for not coming home.

Three, Najib's image gets a new jest. Enough fence-sitting voters would have been won over to give him another chance in reforming the country. And these fence sitters are whom the vote fighting is all about. On top of that, Malays who have deserted UMNO and BN will be having second thoughts about voting Pakatan.

So all Najib needs to do is to convince Anwar that he cannot survive another jail term. Fight and get jailed or lose the fight and enjoy your freedom? Anwar cannot fight the system. We know and he knows that the system is controlled. BN has proven to be capable of showering themselves with mud so as to win and they are capable of doing it again. And Najib is at the end of his wits, mind you.

Oh and what about Anwar’s personal sexual preferences? I do not know if Anwar has a certain likeness to certain parts of the male anatomy but you can never ever discount that. Who are you to say that he is no Adam Lambert? There is also always the MCKK factor. And don't we all know of MCKK's dark little 'backyard' secret. But gay or bi or not, Anwar will go to jail if UMNO wants him to.

So, has Anwar sold us out?

Will Anwar go to jail?

My bet is that you will not see Anwar in jail. I am quite confident of that. And that is not because his lawyers will win him Sodomy II.
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